Backtest: Buy BKR at the close when BKR's trailing 10-day return is at least 2 percenta...
A strategy built on relative strength in oil-services names beat nothing but cash: it returned 29.56% across 66 closed trades, while simply holding SPY over the same window returned 85.28%. That 55.71-point gap is the interesting part.
The setup was specific. Buy BKR at the close when its trailing 10-day return runs at least two points ahead of OIH, and only if Brent crude closed down at least half a percent. Exit on a close below the 5-day moving average, or after five sessions.
The win rate came in at 47.7%, so the edge, such as it was, rested on payoff asymmetry rather than frequency. Best trade gained 16.81%, worst lost 5.32%. The full bar-by-bar breakdown, trade log, and charts follow below.
Buy BKR at the close when BKR's trailing 10-day return is at least 2 percentage points higher than OIH's trailing 10-day return while Brent crude closes down at least 0.5%; exit when BKR closes below its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy BKR at the close when BKR's trailing 10-day return is at least 2 percentage points higher than OIH's trailing 10-day return while Brent crude closes down at least 0.5%; exit when BKR closes below its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +29.56% on $100,000 starting capital across 66 closed trades with a 48% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 55.71 points. Best single trade +16.81%, worst -5.32%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.