Backtest: Buy EOG at the close when it opens at least 1.5% below its prior close and th...
Buying a sharp down open in an oil stock while crude sits above its 50-day average sounds like a sensible mean-reversion trade. The backtest disagrees. Across six closed trades, the EOG setup lost 1.93% on $100,000, with a 33% win rate.
What was tested: buy EOG at the close when it opens at least 1.5% below the prior close and closes in the top half of its daily range, provided Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average. Exit when EOG closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after five trading days. The strategy trailed SPY by a wide margin over the same window.
The full bar-by-bar results and trade-by-trade breakdown are in the analysis below.
Buy EOG at the close when it opens at least 1.5% below its prior close and then closes in the top half of its daily range while Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when EOG closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy EOG at the close when it opens at least 1.5% below its prior close and then closes in the top half of its daily range while Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when EOG closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -1.93% on $100,000 starting capital across 6 closed trades with a 33% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +76.34%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 78.27 points. Best single trade +2.49%, worst -3.26%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.
- Only 6 closed trades in the window — a small sample.