Backtest: Buy EQT at the close when its 14-day RSI falls below 35; exit when its 14-day...
The premise is clean: when EQT gets washed out on the 14-day RSI, buy the close and sell the snapback. Natural gas storage selloffs often feel like positioning shocks, not fundamental breaks, so the trade makes intuitive sense. The backtest, though, tells a more complicated story.
Over 13 closed trades, the rule generated a 26.72% return on $100,000 with a 53.8% win rate. That sounds solid until you line it up against SPY, which gained over the same window—the strategy trailed the benchmark by 41.58 points. The rebounds happened, but the winners didn't compensate for the losers and the time spent waiting.
What follows is the full evidence: every trade, the equity curve, and the exact conditions that produced that return. The data is here. Judge it for yourself.
Buy EQT at the close when its 14-day RSI falls below 35; exit when its 14-day RSI rises above 55 or after 10 trading days, whichever comes first. Oversold natural gas producers get bid back fast because storage selloffs are treated as positioning shocks rather than fundamental breaks, and RSI crosses catch the rebound.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy EQT at the close when its 14-day RSI falls below 35; exit when its 14-day RSI rises above 55 or after 10 trading days, whichever comes first. Oversold natural gas producers get bid back fast because storage selloffs are treated as positioning shocks rather than fundamental breaks, and RSI crosses catch the rebound.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +26.72% on $100,000 starting capital across 13 closed trades with a 54% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +68.30%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 41.58 points. Best single trade +11.30%, worst -9.19%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.