Backtest: Buy KMI at the close when its daily news-sentiment score is in the bottom qui...
The setup had the ring of a structural edge. KMI sits in bottom-quintile news sentiment over its prior 20 sessions while the 10-day tape is still positive — bearish midstream headlines pressing on financial plumbing, not a fundamental shift. Buy the close, hold five days or a 2% stop-loss.
The backtest did not cooperate. Across 376 closed trades, the strategy lost 38.31% on a $100,000 account with a 36.4% win rate. SPY buy-and-hold over the same period returned +76.34%, leaving the idea 114.64 points behind the benchmark.
The full evidence below walks through those trades and where the setup kept breaking down. The finding is direct: the headline noise cost more than the grind higher ever recovered.
Buy KMI at the close when its daily news-sentiment score is in the bottom quintile of its prior 20 sessions and its 10-day total return is positive; exit after 5 trading days or on a 2% stop-loss, whichever comes first. Bearish midstream headlines while KMI's 10-day tape is still firm mark news algos pressing on financial plumbing rather than a fundamental shift, so the stock tends to shake off the headline and grind higher.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy KMI at the close when its daily news-sentiment score is in the bottom quintile of its prior 20 sessions and its 10-day total return is positive; exit after 5 trading days or on a 2% stop-loss, whichever comes first. Bearish midstream headlines while KMI's 10-day tape is still firm mark news algos pressing on financial plumbing rather than a fundamental shift, so the stock tends to shake off the headline and grind higher.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -38.31% on $100,000 starting capital across 376 closed trades with a 36% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +76.34%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 114.64 points. Best single trade +8.84%, worst -19.08%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.