Backtest: Buy TTE at the close when its 10-day simple moving average crosses above its...
The setup sounds reasonable on paper: TTE is an integrated major, so a short-term momentum crossover while Brent is already trending above its own 50-day should theoretically catch the lagged pass-through from crude to equity. That logic is why this strategy is worth stress-testing. But the numbers tell a more complicated story.
Over the tested window, the strategy compounded $100,000 into $107,437.88 across just 8 closed trades—a positive 7.44% return on capital. Yet only 3 of those 8 trades were winners, and the approach trailed a simple SPY buy-and-hold by nearly 69 percentage points over the same period. In other words, the crude-to-equity thesis showed flashes of life but produced returns that were heavily concentrated in a few outsized winners rather than consistent edge.
When an idea yields a positive return but a sub-40% win rate and dramatic benchmark underperformance, the question shifts from "does it work" to "how does it break." The full breakdown below walks through the trade-by-trade signals, timing behavior, and where the strategy's theoretical advantage failed to materialize.
Buy TTE at the close when its 10-day simple moving average crosses above its 20-day simple moving average while Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when TTE closes below its 20-day simple moving average or after 10 trading days, whichever comes first. A short-term upturn in an integrated major while crude is already trending higher tends to catch the delayed crude-to-equity pass-through as momentum capital rotates into the laggard.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy TTE at the close when its 10-day simple moving average crosses above its 20-day simple moving average while Brent crude closes above its 50-day simple moving average; exit when TTE closes below its 20-day simple moving average or after 10 trading days, whichever comes first. A short-term upturn in an integrated major while crude is already trending higher tends to catch the delayed crude-to-equity pass-through as momentum capital rotates into the laggard.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +7.44% on $100,000 starting capital across 8 closed trades with a 38% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +76.34%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 68.90 points. Best single trade +8.40%, worst -4.15%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.
- Only 8 closed trades in the window — a small sample.