Backtest: Buy XOM at the close when Brent crude falls more than 2% on the day and XOM c...
It's a tidy story: Brent sells off more than 2% on a supply shock, XOM absorbs the blow and still closes in the top half of its range, and the market is signaling that the supermajor's cash flows are being treated as an anchor. The strategy buys that close, then exits on a break of the entry day's low or after five sessions.
The backtest doesn't reward the read. Thirty-two closed trades, a 43.8% win rate, and -12.52% on $100,000 of starting capital, while buy-and-hold SPY returned 85.28% over the same window — a 97.80-point gap.
Where the thesis breaks down, and what the individual trades look like from the best (+5.46%) to the worst (-5.54%), is laid out in the full analysis below.
Buy XOM at the close when Brent crude falls more than 2% on the day and XOM closes in the top half of its daily range; exit when XOM closes below the entry day's low or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. A supply-shock oil down day that the supermajor shakes off with a strong close signals buyers treating it as a cash-flow anchor, so XOM tends to follow through once crude stabilizes.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy XOM at the close when Brent crude falls more than 2% on the day and XOM closes in the top half of its daily range; exit when XOM closes below the entry day's low or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first. A supply-shock oil down day that the supermajor shakes off with a strong close signals buyers treating it as a cash-flow anchor, so XOM tends to follow through once crude stabilizes.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -12.52% on $100,000 starting capital across 32 closed trades with a 44% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 97.80 points. Best single trade +5.46%, worst -5.54%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.