Backtest: Buy XOM at the close when XOM closes down at least 1% on the day while Brent...
The setup sounds reasonable enough: Exxon closes down at least 1% while Brent finishes up at least 0.5%, and you buy the disconnect at the close. In the test, that idea returned -36.85% on $100,000 of starting capital across 25 closed trades, with an 8% win rate. Just two winners out of twenty-five.
The mechanics were simple: enter XOM at the close, exit on a close above the 5-day moving average or after five trading days, whichever came first. Over the same window, plain SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, leaving the strategy 122.13 points behind. The best trade made +0.54%; the worst gave back -5.77%.
The full trade-by-trade evidence, the equity path, and where the damage accumulated are in the analysis below.
Buy XOM at the close when XOM closes down at least 1% on the day while Brent crude closes up at least 0.5%; exit when XOM closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy XOM at the close when XOM closes down at least 1% on the day while Brent crude closes up at least 0.5%; exit when XOM closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned -36.85% on $100,000 starting capital across 25 closed trades with a 8% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 122.13 points. Best single trade +0.54%, worst -5.77%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.