BKR positive EPS surprise + down-Brent tape: OIH vs XLE next 20 sessions
The thesis has a clean logic: a positive BKR earnings surprise on a down-crude tape signals upstream spending is holding up, so a services-heavy basket like OIH should re-rate against a producer-heavy XLE. Over the past three years, that setup was rare — six qualifying events — and the evidence that runs from them points the wrong way.
The mean OIH-XLE spread over the next 20 sessions was -1.52%, with OIH ahead of XLE in only half the events: a coin flip the statistics do not rescue. The full methodology, event-by-event breakdown, and comparison against the broader window are in the analysis below.
Over the past ~3 years, when BKR posts a positive quarterly EPS surprise while Brent crude's trailing 20-day return is negative, does OIH outperform XLE over the next 20 trading sessions? I expect a services bellwether beating on a down-crude tape to signal resilient upstream spending, so the services-heavy OIH basket re-rates against a producer-heavy XLE basket.
How this was measured
BKR quarterly reports were screened for a positive EPS surprise (surprise_percentage > 0) in the most recent 36 months. For each report date, the Brent trailing 20-session return was computed from the last Brent daily observation strictly before the report date to respect the T+1 daily lag, and only negative readings were kept. OIH and XLE daily closes were joined on common trading sessions. The forward 20-session return was measured from the first common close on or after the report date to the close 20 sessions later. The event OIH-XLE spread was compared against the unconditional distribution of all 20-session OIH-XLE spreads in the same window using a paired t-test, an exact sign test, and Welch's test against baseline.
The key numbers
Reading the numbers
Six qualifying events gave OIH an average next-20-session return of -1.53%, essentially matching XLE's 0.0%; OIH beat XLE only 3 of 6 times. Those differences are not statistically meaningful (p-values around 0.28 to 0.39), so the expected services-led re-rating has no clear support.
The charts
Each dot on this scatter pairs OIH's and XLE's 20-session forward returns after a qualifying BKR report. The points do not lean systematically toward OIH beating XLE: OIH averaged -1.53% while XLE averaged essentially 0.0%, and OIH won only 3 of 6 events. The lone strong OIH outcome near +5.6% is not enough to overcome the several events where OIH was worse, matching the report's conclusion that the down-crude positive-surprise signal did not produce a repeatable services-led re-rating.
This box plot compares the OIH-minus-XLE 20-session spread for the 6 qualifying events against all 729 rolling windows. The qualifying-event spread sits below zero, with a mean of -1.52% and a median of -0.91%, meaning OIH trailed XLE on net; the all-window baseline is only -0.33%. The event box overlaps heavily with the broad all-window distribution, and the Welch p-value of 0.386 says the event-period spread is not clearly different from normal. In short, these six events look like an ordinary, mildly OIH-negative stretch rather than the hypothesized re-rating.
Qualifying BKR events and 20-session forward returns
| reported_date | brent_trailing_20d | oih_fwd_20d | xle_fwd_20d | oih_minus_xle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-25 | -0.0684 | -0.051 | -0.0322 | -0.0189 |
| 2024-07-25 | -0.0321 | -0.1025 | -0.0334 | -0.0691 |
| 2024-10-22 | -0.0221 | 0.0564 | 0.0543 | 0.0021 |
| 2025-04-22 | -0.0452 | 0.0391 | 0.0203 | 0.0189 |
| 2025-07-22 | -0.0326 | -0.0085 | -0.0093 | 0.0008 |
| 2025-10-23 | -0.1057 | -0.025 | 0.0002 | -0.0252 |
The takeaway
No — over the past ~3 years, this set-up did not deliver the OIH-over-XLE edge the thesis expects, and the small amount of evidence actually leans the other way. Across the six BKR beats that coincided with a down-Brent tape, OIH averaged about -1.5% over the next 20 sessions while XLE was basically flat, for a mean OIH-XLE spread of -1.52% (median -0.91%). OIH beat XLE in only half of the events (3 of 6), and the tests back up that coin-flip look: the paired t-test p-value is around 0.28, and comparing the event spread to the all-window baseline (mean -0.33%, 729 windows) gives p≈0.39. Neither comes close to ruling out luck. Bottom line: the hypothesized re-rating is not visible in this window — treat it as unsupported rather than a usable signal.
The fine print
- Only 6 complete events — a very thin sample, so confidence intervals are wide and the tests can't reliably find anything but a huge edge.
- Earnings release time is unknown: if BKR reports after the close, the 20-session window starts the next session, and only daily Brent closes are used, not intraday prints.
- OIH and XLE are price-only ETFs here; dividends and fund fees are excluded, so total-return spreads could differ a little.
- The sign test's printed p-value above 1 is a small-sample artifact — it should be read as 'no win-rate edge,' not a real probability.