GM daily returns vs Brent crude: correlation and directional analysis (last ~3 years)
For three years, GM’s daily stock returns have shown zero correlation with moves in Brent crude — a Pearson r of -0.0137 and a p-value of 0.71. That’s not weak; it’s statistical background noise. The old narrative that “high oil kills automakers” simply doesn’t hold at the daily frequency, at least for GM.
This study aligns GM’s daily close-to-close returns with Brent crude percentage changes across 751 overlapping trading days. It uses Pearson and Spearman correlations, OLS regression, and a Welch t-test comparing mean returns on Brent-up vs Brent-down days. The full analysis below walks through every chart and number, so you can see for yourself why this link is dead.
For GM over the past ~3 years, does daily Brent crude change actually drive daily returns, or is the auto-oil link a dead narrative? Thesis: GM's daily returns are uncorrelated with crude moves, so the 'high oil kills automakers' trope is a myth.
How this was measured
Resampled GM minute bars to daily close-to-close returns. Computed daily Brent crude returns from brent_daily_df (pct_change). Aligned the two series by calendar date, yielding overlapping trading days. Calculated Pearson and Spearman correlation coefficients, OLS regression slope and R², and compared mean GM returns on days when Brent rose vs fell (Welch t-test). Also plotted a 60-day rolling correlation to detect time-varying relationships. The analysis tests the thesis that GM daily returns are uncorrelated with crude price changes.
The key numbers
Reading the numbers
Over the past three years, GM's daily stock return is essentially unrelated to daily moves in Brent crude — the correlation is a trivial -0.014 and the R² is near zero. The statistical tests all say the same thing: there's no meaningful link, supporting the idea that the 'high oil hurts automakers' story is a myth.
The charts
This scatter plot shows every daily pair of Brent crude and GM returns as a single dot. The dots form a shapeless cloud with no upward or downward tilt, meaning that on days Brent goes up, GM is just as likely to go up or down. With a correlation of just -0.01 and a p-value of 0.71, there is no statistical evidence that crude moves drive GM's daily returns.
This line tracks the 60-day rolling correlation between GM and Brent — a way to see if the relationship ever strengthens for short periods. The correlation swings wildly between roughly -0.48 and +0.47, but it rarely stays negative or positive for long, and the average over the whole period is just 0.05. That erratic behavior confirms there is no stable, dependable connection between daily crude moves and GM stock.
This bar chart compares the average GM return on days when Brent crude rose versus days when it fell. The two bars are nearly the same height — about 0.18% on up days and 0.05% on down days — and the difference is tiny relative to normal daily swings. A statistical test says that gap is pure noise (p=0.40), so whether crude goes up or down has no material effect on GM's daily return.
GM return statistics by Brent direction
| Brent direction | N | Mean GM return | Std GM return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent up | 378 | 0.0018 | 0.023 |
| Brent down | 367 | 0.0005 | 0.02 |
The takeaway
The 'high oil kills automakers' trope is a myth for GM daily returns: over the past three years, GM's stock moves have essentially zero correlation with daily Brent crude changes. The Pearson correlation is a negligible -0.014, and the p-value of 0.71 means there's a 71% chance this weak relationship is just random noise. Even comparing days when crude rose versus fell, GM averaged only a slightly higher return (0.18% vs 0.05%), and that gap is nowhere near statistically meaningful (p=0.40). With 751 overlapping trading days, the evidence is clear-cut: this is basically a coin flip, not a signal. The takeaway is that daily oil price moves do not drive GM's day-to-day stock returns, so investors shouldn't buy or sell GM based on a single crude print.
The fine print
- Brent daily prices may reflect a T+1 reporting lag; same-day alignment could mis-time the economic shock.
- Only linear, same-day correlation is tested — lagged or non-linear effects (e.g., GM reacting over several days) are not captured.
- The 3-year sample includes the 2022 oil spike and subsequent pullback; results may differ under a different macro regime.
- GM's oil exposure is indirect via consumer demand and input costs; Brent alone may not capture the full commodity cost channel.