Backtest: Buy BP at the close when BP closes down at least 1.5% while Brent crude close...
A 78% win rate and a positive return can still be a losing proposition relative to the market. This backtest bought BP at the close after it fell at least 1.5% while Brent crude traded above its 20-day moving average, then exited when BP closed above its 5-day moving average or after five sessions, whichever came first.
Across 29 closed trades, the strategy produced +3.04% on $100,000, but SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28% over the same stretch. The gap is the story: frequent small wins did not compound into broad equity exposure.
The full trade-by-trade evidence, including best and worst outcomes, is below.
Buy BP at the close when BP closes down at least 1.5% while Brent crude closes above its 20-day simple moving average; exit when BP closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
How this was measured
This is a simulated backtest generated from the plain-English strategy below, executed bar-by-bar on historical market data using the price + news data mode with $100,000 starting capital. Strategy: Buy BP at the close when BP closes down at least 1.5% while Brent crude closes above its 20-day simple moving average; exit when BP closes above its 5-day simple moving average or after 5 trading days, whichever comes first.
The key numbers
The charts
The takeaway
The strategy returned +3.04% on $100,000 starting capital across 29 closed trades with a 78% win rate. Over the same window SPY buy-and-hold returned +85.28%, so the strategy finished trailing the benchmark by 82.24 points. Best single trade +3.69%, worst -15.18%.
The fine print
- Simulated results on historical data — fills, slippage and costs are idealized.
- Past performance does not predict future results.